An interactive simulation tool developed by the RAND Corporation reveals how patient demand and health care system capacity could impact the delivery of disease-modifying therapies (DMTs) for Alzheimer disease (AD) in the United States between 2025 and 2044. The tool, funded by Genentech (San Francisco, CA), simulates wait times and DMT delivery at the national and state levels based on current population and capacity data and the potential adoption of new care models and testing abilities.

Key findings of the simulation include:

  • Wait times and DMT delivery are highly sensitive to increased demand for cognitive assessments, with rural areas facing up to 3 times longer wait times compared to urban areas.
  • Enabling primary care practitioners (PCPs) to diagnose and evaluate patient eligibility for DMTs could significantly reduce wait times.
  • The use of blood-based biomarker tests to triage patients could further reduce wait times and increase DMT delivery.

RAND researchers note that the simulations are not predictions of future DMT delivery, which is contingent on coverage and reimbursement decisions.

The interactive tool is available at https://www.rand.org/pubs/tools/TLA2643-1/tool.html.

Source: RAND Corporation. The future of Alzheimer’s care in America. RAND. Accessed July 16, 2024. https://www.rand.org/pubs/tools/TLA2643-1/tool.html